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Improved forecasts for wind farms could save billions

If the weather report says it’s supposed to be sunny and breezy tomorrow, do you trust that forecast enough to plan a picnic or hike? Probably. But what if instead of a soggy lunch or wet boots, the efficiency and reliability of the region’s electricity grid was at risk? Those are the stakes that grid operators face around the clock as they incorporate wind power into the system. Wind is a variable energy source, which means, unlike coal or gas plants, grid operators never know precisely how much power wind farms will generate at a given time. They depend on weather forecasts to estimate how much power turbines will produce in the hours and days ahead. Those forecasts are critical for getting the most value — economic and environmental — out of wind energy. A grid operator needs to trust a forecast before it will shut down or reduce generation at more expensive and polluting fossil fuel plants. “If grid operators have more confidence in our weather forecasts, they’ll be able to avoid burning excessive fossil fuels,” says Melinda Marquis, a renewable energy program manager with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). That’s why NOAA recently partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy on a study called the Wind Forecast Improvement Project, which will attempt to measure the economic value of improved forecasting to the energy industry. There’s reason to believe that it’s significant. Marquis is co-author of a report published in the September issue of the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society that pegs the number somewhere between $1 billion and $4 billion annually, based on previously published studies.(Continue reading…)

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